The national headlines claim crime is plummeting at record levels, but a look under the hood reveals a much messier, more dangerous reality in several parts of the country. It’s easy to get lost in big-picture stats showing murder rates falling in major hubs like New York and Chicago. While the United States as a whole enjoys a virtuous cycle where lower crime allows police to focus more resources on individual cases, ten specific states are trapped in a different story altogether.
While the US as a whole is seeing a historic drop in violence, a handful of states are bucking the trend with surging rates of retail theft, motor vehicle heists, and aggravated assaults.
Regional differences are becoming the defining feature of the American safety landscape in 2026. The Northeast continues to hold the title for the lowest violent crime and murder rates, even as property crime there saw a slight uptick recently. Meanwhile, according to 2024 FBI data analyzed by USAFacts, the West is grappling with the highest regional violent crime rates in the nation, sitting about 21% higher than the rest of the country. This Geographic divide means that where a person lives now dictates their risk level more than at any point in the last decade. It isn’t just a city-versus-rural issue anymore; the struggle is hitting small towns and industrial corridors just as hard.
Data from the FBI and the Council on Criminal Justice suggest that the pandemic-era spike was not a new normal for most, but for these ten states, the recovery is stalled or reversing. Several states have seen violent crime rates double or even triple over the last twenty years, creating a long-term crisis that short-term dips can’t hide. Understanding why these specific areas are struggling requires looking at everything from drug market shifts to court system backlogs. This analysis breaks down the states where the crime trend is moving in the wrong direction.
North Dakota
North Dakota holds the unfortunate distinction of seeing the most dramatic long-term surge in violent crime of any state in the union. While the state started with very low baseline numbers, the consistent upward trajectory has raised alarm bells among local officials. Aggravated assaults are the primary engine driving this astronomical high in victim counts. The rapid rise in aggravated assaults highlights a breakdown in community stability that often follows rapid economic shifts.
The shift in the state’s safety profile is largely attributed to rapid demographic changes and the pressures of industrial growth. State Attorney General Drew Wrigley has pointed out that the number of violent crime victims reached over 12,000 by 2024, compared to roughly 8,800 just a decade prior. This 40% increase in a relatively short window has pushed the state’s criminal justice system to its limits. The disconnect between historical perceptions of safety and the current reality is wider here than perhaps anywhere else. North Dakota is no longer the quiet outlier it once was, and its current trajectory suggests the crisis is far from over.
Policy debates in the state are now centered on the law’s provisions on punishment. Attorney General Wrigley has advocated for stricter sentencing, suggesting that violent offenders should serve at least half of their sentences before being considered for parole. This tough-on-crime stance reflects growing frustration with a system that many feel no longer acts as a sufficient deterrent. The state’s struggle is a reminder that even traditionally safe regions aren’t immune to national trends. Stricter sentencing mandates are becoming the primary tool for lawmakers trying to reverse these astronomical trends.
South Dakota
South Dakota is currently facing a sharp spike in its most serious offenses, particularly homicides. In 2024, the state recorded 31 homicides, a massive jump from the 18 reported just one year earlier. This increase contributed to a 2.53% rise in Group A offenses, which include the most serious violent and sex crimes. While other states are celebrating record-low murder rates, South Dakota is moving in the opposite direction. The spike in homicides indicates that organized criminal activity is finding a foothold in the state.
The state’s overall crime volume grew by 1.21% in 2024, even as the national average decreased significantly. Attorney General Marty Jackley has linked much of this activity to a burgeoning drug crisis, particularly involving methamphetamine and fentanyl. Methamphetamine-related offenses alone accounted for over 3,100 cases in 2024, while fentanyl cases surged significantly within the Other Narcotics category. The intersection of narcotics and violence is creating a volatile environment for residents. South Dakota’s current data reveals a state struggling with the fallout of a drug market that is becoming increasingly violent and pervasive.
Property crime in the state has also been a major concern, with larceny-theft rates remaining stubbornly high. Motor vehicle theft is another area where South Dakota is bucking the national downward trend, with year-over-year increases in the most recent reports. While burglaries saw a slight 12.8% dip, the rise in other property crimes suggests that thieves are simply shifting their methods. The state’s struggle to control these “bread and butter” crimes is a major driver of public anxiety. Thieves are becoming more brazen, moving away from traditional burglary toward more direct forms of theft.
The state’s violent crime rate in 2024 was about 0.89% higher than the national average. While that might sound small, the 67.9% jump in the murder rate from the prior year is anything but minor. Aggravated assaults also saw a 2% increase, remaining the dominant category of violence in the state. Law enforcement is currently playing catch-up with a surge in lethal violence that has doubled the murder count in just twenty-four months.
Attorney General Jackley has also sounded the alarm on organized retail crime. South Dakota joined a 38-state coalition urging Congress to take action against large-scale theft rings. This shows that even rural states are being targeted by professional criminal groups. The combination of local drug-fueled violence and national theft rings is stretching the state’s resources to a breaking point.
Vermont
Vermont is grappling with a violent crime crisis that is tied directly to its “hospitable drug marketplace” and a massive backlog in the courts. Homicides have reached levels not seen since the early 1990s, with the state averaging 22 per year recently compared to a historical average of about 11 or 12. This doubling of lethal violence has sent shockwaves through the traditionally peaceful state. Vermont’s identity as a safe haven is being dismantled by a drug-fueled violent crime wave that the state’s small-town infrastructure was never designed to handle.
The surge in killings has created a logistical nightmare for the state’s legal infrastructure. There are currently roughly 120 pending homicide cases in Vermont, a staggering number for a state with its population size. This backlog means that other criminal activity often takes a back seat, allowing misdemeanors and nonviolent crimes to go unchecked while prosecutors focus on the most serious violence. The result is a sense of lawlessness that local residents find deeply unsettling. The sheer volume of pending homicide cases suggests a system that is effectively broken and unable to deliver swift justice.
Local officials point to the prevalence of firearms and the drug trade as the primary catalysts for the violence. The state’s prosecutors are currently handling an average of 450 cases each, a workload that is unsustainable and leads to further delays. This systemic strain is one of the biggest obstacles to restoring public safety. Prosecutors are literally begging for more resources as they drown in a sea of violent felony cases.
Hawaii
Hawaii has experienced one of the most abrupt and severe crime surges in the country over the last year. In 2024, the state saw violent crime jump by 16.4% and property crime rise by 16.6%, the largest surge recorded in the nation, as per USAFacts. This sudden spike stands in stark contrast to the national trend of record-low crime rates. The islands are no longer insulated from the mainland’s most troubling criminal trends. The unprecedented rise in both violent and property crime suggests that Hawaii is facing a systemic breakdown in public safety.
A particularly disturbing aspect of the Hawaii crisis is the rise in aggression directed at law enforcement. Assaults on officers in Honolulu surged by 20% in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Police Chief Rade Vanic attributed this to a combination of mental health crises, substance abuse, and an overall increase in confrontational behavior. This hostility makes routine calls for service increasingly dangerous for the state’s already short-staffed departments. Reducing officer assaults will require a whole-of-community effort, as more police alone aren’t solving the underlying mental health triggers.
Island leaders are seeking ways to improve their people’s lives amid this uncertainty. Given the crisis, the leadership challenge of a lifetime is currently unfolding across the island chain. Change is inevitable, but without a clear vision for the future, Hawaii’s residents’ safety remains at risk. Hawaii’s current trajectory is a warning that geographic isolation is no longer a defense against the rising tide of organized and spontaneous crime.
Washington
Washington state has become the national epicenter for retail theft and is struggling with a disturbing rise in juvenile violence. In 2024, Washington was ranked the state most affected by retail crime, with estimates suggesting it loses $2.7 billion in stolen goods each year. This crisis has become so brazen that lawmakers are pushing for urgent sentencing reforms to crack down on organized retail rings. Business owners are increasingly investing in expensive security measures that were once unnecessary in suburban shopping districts. Washington’s status as a leader in retail crime is a direct threat to the economic viability of its most bustling commercial hubs.
The human toll of the crime wave is perhaps most visible in the state’s juvenile statistics. The number of juvenile homicide victims in Washington nearly tripled between 2019 and 2024, rising from 21 to 62. While overall adult homicides have begun to decline from their 2022 peak, the violence involving youth remains on a terrifying upward path. This trend suggests a long-term problem that will persist even if other crime categories improve. The explosion in juvenile homicides indicates a deep-seated cultural and economic shift within the state that policing alone cannot fix.
Property crime, in general, is a major standout, particularly in vehicle theft. Washington, D.C., may lead the nation in theft rates, but Washington state remains a top contender with cities like Seattle and Tacoma recording some of the highest burglary and auto theft rates in the West. Though preliminary 2025 data suggest a double-digit drop in property crime, the state is starting from an incredibly high peak, 13% above the 2019 baseline. Washington’s road to recovery is much steeper than that of its neighbors.
Organized retail crime has surged by 93% from 2019 levels nationwide, and Washington is leading the pack. Retailers are reporting that the violence committed during these thefts is actually worsening. Lawmakers like Rep. Mari Leavitt are sounding the alarm on large-scale crime rings that resell stolen goods for massive profits. Lax consequences for repeat offenders have emboldened these rings to escalate their tactics from simple theft to coordinated havoc.
Alaska
Alaska consistently records the highest violent crime rate in the United States, and its property crime trends are currently heading in the wrong direction. In 2024, Alaska saw 724.1 violent incidents per 100,000 residents, the highest rate of any state. While the national average dropped significantly, Alaska’s violence remains “unacceptable” to local leaders who are struggling with diminishing budgets and fewer officers. Alaska remains the most dangerous state in the union, and its current trajectory suggests that the gap between it and the rest of the nation is only widening.
The property crime crisis in Alaska is being driven by a surge in motor vehicle thefts that defies the national downward trend. Alaska was the only state in the nation to report an increase in vehicle thefts in early 2025, with a 26% rise driven largely by trends in Anchorage. This is particularly striking given that states like Washington and Colorado saw their theft rates drop by 30% or more in the same period. The state is increasingly an outlier in the Pacific Northwest. The fact that Alaska is the only state seeing a rise in vehicle thefts, while the rest of the country is seeing a plunge, is a clear sign of a localized crisis.
Drug use, particularly the opioid epidemic, is cited as a major factor behind the state’s persistent violence. Public safety officials have noted that as state budgets shrink, there are fewer prosecutors to enforce the law, creating a “perfect storm” for criminal activity. Anchorage, the state’s largest city, also struggles with exceptionally high rates of r@pe, ranking first among medium-sized cities for that offense. The combination of isolation, limited resources, and high drug use is proving to be a lethal mix. Diminishing budgets have left the state with too few police and too many drug-related offenses to handle effectively.
Colorado
Colorado has seen its property crime rate climb to the second-highest in the nation, largely due to what experts call an “auto theft pandemic.” The state has become a magnet for car thieves who prey on the high number of SUVs and trucks, with catalytic converter thefts on the rise. Colorado’s current data shows a state where violent and property crimes are stubbornly high and continuing to grow in several categories.
The violent crime landscape in Colorado is equally unsettling, particularly in Colorado Springs. Colorado Springs recorded a 94% increase in homicides between the first half of 2019 and the first half of 2025, the largest percentage increase in the Council on Criminal Justice’s city sample.
The state’s geographic location along the I-25 and I-70 corridors has made it a primary route for drug trafficking, which fuels much of the property crime. Methamphetamine-related offenses rose by 17% last year, and nearly 70% of the state’s violent crimes occur along the urban I-25 corridor. Pueblo, another major city in the state, reports violent crime rates that are comparable to some of the most dangerous cities in the country. Colorado is a state of contradictions, where safe mountain towns exist just miles away from some of the nation’s most active crime hotspots.
Arkansas
Arkansas is currently struggling with a murder rate that ranks as the fifth-highest in the nation, driven by a shocking spike in its capital city. While most large American cities saw homicides drop by 17% in early 2025, Little Rock experienced a 39% rise during the same period. This level of localized violence is unprecedented in the state’s recent history.
The nature of the violence in Arkansas suggests a breakdown in domestic and social stability. Little Rock Police Chief Heath Helton noted that three-fourths of the city’s homicides are acquaintance or domestic type-related, meaning they aren’t random acts of violence. This suggests that the state’s crisis is driven by interpersonal conflicts that are increasingly turning lethal, often involving firearms. The presence of “internet purchase exchange” locations being used for robberies that turn fatal is another new and troubling development. Most of the violence is happening between people who know each other, pointing to a failure in community-based intervention strategies.
Poverty and unemployment remain the primary drivers of the state’s high crime rates, particularly in urban centers like Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and West Memphis. Property crimes in Arkansas are nearly four times higher than violent crimes, but the violent crime rate itself remains significantly above the national average. Domestic violence is also a major concern, with roughly 40% of women in the state experiencing some form of abuse, which often escalates into more serious felonies. The state’s struggle is as much about social health as it is about policing. Arkansas is currently facing a violent crime crisis that is deeply entwined with poverty and a lack of resources for youth intervention.
Police are increasing their presence in areas where crime could spike as part of a strategy by Mayor Frank Scott Jr. The city is implementing community intervention programs for youth ages 15 to 21, where most of the crime is currently occurring. By being “smarter on crime” with a real-time crime center, officials hope to reverse these deadly trends. Targeted patrols and smarter technology are the state’s best hope for bringing these runaway numbers under control.
Indiana
Indiana is seeing a massive surge in law enforcement activity as it battles a complex, violent crime landscape. Operations like “Operation No Escape” and “Operation Summer Heat” led to hundreds of arrests of violent criminals across the state. This level of aggressive intervention suggests that the state is finally confronting a crisis that has been building for years.
Indianapolis itself has become a major concern, with violent crime rates that sit well above the national average. Motor vehicle theft is another standout problem, described by experts as “unusually high” for a city of its size. While property crime accounts for the majority of the risk, the city’s C-grade for crime and safety reflects deep public concern. The risk of being a victim of crime in Indianapolis currently sits at about 1 in 21, a number that is simply too high for comfort.
Social media is playing a “complex and daunting” role in the city’s youth violence. Over one-third of gun homicides involving Indianapolis youth since 2018 have featured social media drama in some form. Algorithms can feed vulnerable youth a reality where violence is the norm, leading to “trash talking” that ends in gunfire. Already, 21 people under the age of 20 have been killed by gunfire in 2025, which is more than all of last year. Social media has turned school-aged drama into a lethal catalyst for the city’s rising youth murder rate.
Wyoming
Wyoming is currently witnessing a troubling rise in violent crime rates that stands in direct opposition to the national downward trend. Wyoming’s data reveals a state where serious violence is becoming more frequent and more deadly, despite its rural and low-population profile.
The lethality of violence in the state is also trending in the wrong direction. Wyoming has the highest rate of gun sales in the country, though high gun ownership has not historically correlated with high crime rates. The shift suggests that the nature of gun use in the state is becoming more violent and less about traditional hunting or self-defense.
Alcohol remains the primary driver of criminal activity in the state’s counties. Roughly 14% of arrests in Wyoming are now for felonies, a figure that has doubled over the last decade. Law enforcement officials have noted that alcohol is the contributing factor most often present in situations that result in jail time, and the percentage of alcohol-involved arrests has been rising since 2019. The state’s crisis is a combination of traditional substance abuse issues meeting a new, more lethal trend in firearm violence. The doubling of felony arrests over the last ten years shows that Wyoming is moving away from minor offenses toward serious, life-altering crimes.
Wyoming leads the nation with 161 guns sold per 1,000 residents, a rate 21 times higher than in D.C. While gun sales don’t always mean more crime, the fact that violent crime and murders both rose in 2024 is a major shift. Interestingly, only 29% of assaults in the state involve firearms, which is much lower than the national average. The violence in Wyoming is often more personal and physical, but the rising death toll shows that when guns are used, the results are increasingly fatal.
The state association of sheriffs has been tracking substance-involved arrest data for twenty years. Information from over 268,000 persons arrested shows that alcohol is present in nearly every situation that leads to a jail stay. As the state returns to pre-pandemic “normal” activities, these numbers have only leveled off, not fallen. The culture of high alcohol consumption is providing the fuel for a violent crime rate that refuses to follow the national downward trend.
Key takeaway
While the United States is seeing a historic 17-20% drop in murders, states like North Dakota and Vermont are grappling with long-term violent crime increases of over 95% since 2004. Hawaii and Washington are leading a new “retail and property theft” crisis that has seen crime on the islands surge by 16% in a single year. These ten states show that national averages can be deceptive; local factors such as drug market shifts, court backlogs, and economic instability are creating dangerous new hotspots that busy professionals cannot afford to ignore.
Disclaimer – This list is solely the author’s opinion based on research and publicly available information. It is not intended to be professional advice.
Disclosure: This article was developed with the assistance of AI and was subsequently reviewed, revised, and approved by our editorial team.
Like our content? Be sure to follow us.
