A bunch of major cities around the globe are in a serious race against time. Unfortunately, time is winning. Rising seas, vanishing land, and unforgiving storms are pushing entire cities toward the edge of extinction. The climate crisis is accelerating beyond historic precedent, and urban vulnerability has reached a breaking point. Skyscrapers teeter over subsiding foundations, neighborhoods drown beneath record floodwaters, and millions face the stark reality of being climate migrants in their own lifetime.
According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over a billion people in low-lying urban areas will be at direct risk of coastal flooding by 2050. These places might not be around for our grandkids to visit, not because they’ll be out of fashion, but because they’ll be underwater or otherwise uninhabitable.
C40 Cities and the Mayors Migration Council predict that more than eight million climate migrants are expected to arrive in just ten Global South cities by 2050. So, let’s look at why they’re in trouble, what’s being done (or not done), and what it all means.
Jakarta, Indonesia
First up is Jakarta, the poster child for sinking cities. This megacity, home to 10 million people, is sinking at an absolutely terrifying rate. We’re talking an average of 1 to 15 centimeters per year.
The main culprit here is excessive groundwater extraction. Jakarta sits on swampy land, and for decades, residents and industries have been pumping water out from underground aquifers like there’s no tomorrow. Well, tomorrow is here, and the ground is literally deflating like a sad balloon. This process is called land subsidence.
To make matters worse, the Java Sea is rising, leading to more frequent and severe flooding. A hydrodynamic model predicts the flood extent will swell by 110.5 km² between 2000 and 2050, with land subsidence responsible for 88% of this increase. One researcher, Heri Andreas, warns, “If we look at our models, by 2050 about 95% of North Jakarta will be submerged.”
Annual flood damages could surge by up to 400% by 2050, amounting to Rp 35 trillion (US$2.3 billion) per year without major intervention. The Indonesian government is so concerned that they’re in the process of moving the entire capital to a new city, Nusantara, on the island of Borneo.
Venice, Italy
The city of canals, gondolas, and… constant flooding? For centuries, Venetians have lived with “acqua alta,” or high water. But now, thanks to rising sea levels, these events are becoming more frequent and intense.
The city has a multi-billion-dollar flood barrier system called MOSE, which is basically a series of giant, retractable gates. And let me tell you, MOSE has been working overtime. In 2024, the barriers were raised 28 times, and since 2020, they’ve been deployed nearly 100 times. Each deployment costs a fortune (roughly €20 million in operating costs to date), and scientists worry that frequent closures could mess up the lagoon’s ecosystem.
In 2024, tides above 80 cm, the threshold for flooding St. Mark’s Square, occurred 219 times. Climate experts warn that, without global mitigation, MOSE may be forced to close up to 260 days per year by the end of the century.
So, while MOSE is keeping the city’s feet dry for now, it’s a very expensive, and potentially damaging, band-aid.
Miami, USA
Miami is the life of the party, but it’s a party built on porous limestone. As sea levels rise, saltwater isn’t just creeping up the beaches; it’s pushing up from below, through the ground. Seawalls aren’t much help when the water is coming up through your floorboards.
Southeast Florida could see 10 to 17 inches of sea-level rise by 2040, up to 54 inches by 2070, and 40–136 inches by 2120, referencing NOAA’s Intermediate and Intermediate-High scenarios. “Sunny-day flooding,” where streets flood on clear days during high tides, is already a regular annoyance for residents.
As one Miami Waterkeeper report puts it, “water is coming up from below our feet” and adaptation must include every strategy—holistic planning, neighborhood retreats, and relentless infrastructure investment—to keep South Florida above water as the climate crisis accelerates.
Building higher is a short-term fix, but how do you solve a problem that’s literally undermining your city’s foundation?
New Orleans, USA
New Orleans is no stranger to water-related disasters. Some areas within the city’s deltaic landscape are sinking by up to 20 mm per year, placing them among the fastest-subsiding urban centers in the U.S. The city sits in a bowl, with much of it already below sea level, protected by a complex system of levees and pumps. This makes it incredibly vulnerable to storm surges and rising seas.
Projections show New Orleans could see 14.5 inches of sea-level rise by 2040 and as much as 6.5 feet by 2100—one of the highest rates forecasted for any coastal city worldwide.
The problem is that even a small increase in sea level dramatically raises the odds that a storm surge from a major hurricane could overtop the levees. The city’s survival depends on continuously upgrading its defenses and restoring the coastal wetlands that provide a natural buffer. New Orleans is consistently on lists of cities facing existential flood risk, and for very good reason.
Bangkok, Thailand
Like Jakarta, Bangkok is a low-lying city built on soft clay that is slowly but surely sinking. The city sits just a meter and a half above sea level, and decades of groundwater pumping have caused significant subsidence. Early-2000s rates of 10–30 mm/year persist in many districts, and newer satellite analyses project mean velocities around −7 mm/year and localized hotspots far higher in the metropolitan vicinity.
Some parts of the metropolis are already below sea level. Combine that with heavier monsoon rains and the threat of rising seas, and you have a recipe for catastrophic flooding. With mean city elevation just 0.5–2.0 meters above sea level, even modest sea-level rise—projected at 1 meter by century’s end—could swamp vast urban areas and make drainage infrastructure obsolete.
The 2011 flood, which killed 800 people and caused $41 billion in damage, remains a stark illustration of Bangkok’s vulnerability. Although the government has taken steps to manage groundwater extraction, the city remains in a precarious position.
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. Rising sea levels could displace up to 18 million people by 2050, inundating huge swaths of the country’s low-lying coastal areas. Roughly 11–17% of national land faces inundation, with salinization simultaneously degrading agricultural productivity in the delta.
High tides in coastal Bangladesh are rising ten times faster than the global average, and a one-meter rise in sea level would submerge about one-third of the nation’s area—potentially uprooting 25–30 million people in worst-case scenarios.
Where do these displaced people go? Many of them head to Dhaka, the capital. The city is already bursting at the seams, and this massive influx of climate refugees is straining its infrastructure to the breaking point. This is creating a humanitarian crisis on top of an environmental one, as millions are forced into crowded slums with little access to basic services.
Alexandria, Egypt
Founded by Alexander the Great, this ancient city is literally watching its heritage get washed away. Alexandria’s low-lying Mediterranean coast is being battered by rising seas and erosion, threatening everything from modern neighborhoods to priceless historical sites.
Since 2000, more than 280 buildings have collapsed—including historic monuments—while recent years have seen that rate surge from just one per year to as many as 40 annually, directly linked to seawater intrusion.
To make things even more dramatic, UNESCO has warned that Alexandria needs to be prepared for a tsunami by 2030. The city is also dealing with saltwater intrusion into the fertile Nile Delta, which could devastate the region’s agriculture.
Alexandria’s government has invested over $120 million in defensive concrete barriers and breakwaters along shrinking beaches, with nine major sea barriers in place to reduce wave impact and sand replenishment projects regularly underway. Yet, experts—including University of Southern California’s Essam Heggy—emphasize that “what once seemed like distant climate risks are now a present reality.”
Lagos, Nigeria
Africa’s largest city is facing an existential threat. Coastal communities in Lagos are already losing homes to the encroaching Atlantic Ocean. In 2024, the Deputy Governor warned that Lagos is “gradually sinking,” citing extreme heat, urbanization, and sea level rise as existential threats.
Scientific projections anticipate up to 3 meters (9.8 feet) of sea level rise by 2050, with rainfall-induced flooding compounding the risk in a city where nearly 1.4 million people now face direct annual flood threats. Coastal erosion on Victoria and Alpha beaches, alongside other districts like Eti-Osa East and Lekki, underscores the city’s vulnerability.
This isn’t a future problem; people in areas such as Okun Alfaare have already lost their homes and even burial grounds to the sea right now, reports Al Jazeera. The Nigerian Conservation Foundation now warns that Lagos and similar coastal cities less than one meter above sea level could be submerged by 2050 if urgent action is not taken.
Houston, USA
Houston’s problem isn’t just rising seas, it’s extreme rainfall. The city’s flat landscape and sprawling, concrete-heavy development mean that when it rains, it floods. Catastrophically. Today, Houston’s most intense rainstorms deliver about 20% more water than in the 1950s, and the share of precipitation from extreme events is projected to rise from 44% to 48% by 2050.
Hurricane Harvey in 2017 was a brutal wake-up call, showing how a slow-moving, moisture-packed storm could overwhelm the city’s drainage systems. Three out of four homes flooded during Harvey were outside official flood zones, exposing the limitations of outdated risk maps and leaving thousands unknowingly vulnerable.
Despite extensive mitigation projects like the $80 million Inwood Forest Stormwater Detention Basin and $131 million North Canal Diversion Channel, experts caution that infrastructure alone may not keep pace with compounding risks.
As the climate warms, extreme rain events are expected to become more common, keeping Houston firmly on the at-risk list.
New York City, USA
Even the mighty NYC isn’t immune. The city is facing a triple threat: rising sea levels, sinking land in some areas, and the ever-present risk of a major storm surge. Projections indicate that by 2100, sea levels at key points like The Battery in Manhattan could rise by 30 to 50 inches (2.5 to 6.5 feet).
NOAA maps show that low-lying areas such as Battery Park City, the East Side of Manhattan, and communities around Jamaica Bay may experience regular “sunny day” flooding, with up to one-third of New York’s total area falling into the 100-year floodplain as the century progresses.
Superstorm Sandy in 2012 caused $19 billion in damages and exposed the vulnerability of New York’s subways, airports, and housing stock—especially in basement apartments and at-grade residences, which remain at greater risk during heavy rainfall and surge events.
New York is investing billions in flood walls and resilient infrastructure—like the city’s $10 billion defense plan and $900 million in South Manhattan resiliency projects—but it’s a monumental task. The scale of the threat is immense, and the city is in a long-term race to adapt.
Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Netherlands is famous for its mastery of water management. A huge portion of the country is below sea level, protected by an incredible network of dikes, pumps, and barriers. But even for the Dutch, climate change is a formidable opponent.
With over 97% of its population—approximately 700,000 people—living in flood-prone areas, Amsterdam ranks as one of the world’s most vulnerable capitals by 2050. Current projections estimate local sea level could climb between 0.28 and 1.88 meters (nearly 6 feet) by 2100, and some worst-case scenarios put the figure at over 2 meters.
Dutch engineers are actively upgrading critical sea walls such as the Afsluitdijk—now being raised by 2 meters and reinforced to face “10,000-year floods”—and adding new sluices and pumps at immense cost. Yet, research from Utrecht University and adaptation specialists warn that even robust systems are not fail-proof, as heavier river discharges, storm surge, and land subsidence compound the residual risk of catastrophic floods; foundation damage from subsidence already affects about 17% of Dutch homes, sometimes costing over €100,000 per property.
Policymakers and climate experts, including Alex Hekman of Sweco, note that “major infrastructure projects had failed to account for rising sea levels,” prompting urgent studies and whitepapers to map solutions and future investments.
Shanghai, China
Shanghai, another coastal megacity built on a river delta, shares many of the same vulnerabilities as Bangkok and Jakarta. A history of land subsidence and its low elevation make it highly susceptible to flooding from rising seas and intense rainfall. Parts of the city are built on alluvial clay prone to sinking.
Between 1921 and 2007, Shanghai’s land sank at an average rate of 22.94 mm/year, leading to billions of euros in economic losses and widespread infrastructure damage. Even today, experts warn that “half the city could be under 1.2 meters of floodwater by the end of the century” if current trends persist.
The relative sea level is expected to rise by 45–50 cm (about 1.5 feet) by 2050. Modeling suggests that the frequency of today’s 10- and 100-year floods could double by 2030, becoming three to five times more common by 2050. It will also surge fiftyfold by 2100 if the relative sea level climbs by 1.36 meters (4.5 feet).
Coupled with typhoon risks intensified by urbanization and warmer sea surface temperatures, flooding in Shanghai—from both the Yangtze River and the East China Sea—already triggers mass evacuations and record rainfall events; for instance, in September 2024, back-to-back typhoons forced over half a million to flee and broke local precipitation records.
Like other major economic hubs, Shanghai has invested heavily in coastal defenses (flood walls, drainage upgrades, and a “four lines of defense” system). However, the margins for error are shrinking as the water levels continue to creep up, thus posing a constant challenge to one of the world’s most populous urban areas.
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Rotterdam is celebrated for its innovative flood defenses and urban adaptation strategies. However, it stands on the front line of climate risk due to its location at the meeting of major European rivers and the North Sea. The city’s celebrated “Room for the River” project and ambitious adaptation programs blend robust infrastructure—dikes, the Maeslantkering movable storm surge barrier, blue-green corridors, and 185,000 m² of green roofs—with nature-based approaches and participatory urban planning. This raises Rotterdam’s resilience against floods while revitalizing neighborhoods and economic zones.
Despite these strengths, current analyses by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and city planners forecast sea-level rise of 30–120 cm (1–4 feet) by 2100, with winter river discharges growing and summer droughts intensifying. The probability and impact of flood damage in port and residential districts are projected to increase, even as rotating defenses hold back 1-in-10,000-year storm surges.
City leaders have budgeted €4–5 billion for new climate-proofing infrastructure, including sand nourishment and water storage, aiming to keep Rotterdam habitable and prosperous.
Cape Town, South Africa
Cape Town’s brush with disaster was a bit different. In 2018, the city came terrifyingly close to “Day Zero”—the day the taps would run dry after a multi-year drought. Scientific studies confirm that the drought that triggered Day Zero was five to six times more likely due to climate change, with similar multi-year dry spells projected to become up to 80% likely by 2100 under high-emission scenarios.
Between 2015 and 2018, dam levels plummeted to just 14–29% capacity amid three consecutive years of drastically reduced rainfall, all while Cape Town’s population soared by 71% from 1995 to 2015, straining a water system whose storage increased by only 17%.
While emergency measures and water conservation efforts averted the immediate crisis (helped halve daily water consumption to around 500 million liters), the threat hasn’t gone away. The city’s leadership continues to roll out the Cape Town Water Strategy, aiming for 99.5% assurance of supply by 2030 through infrastructure upgrades, new water sources, and automated metering.
Climate change is making the region’s weather patterns more volatile, increasing the risk of future droughts.
Small Island Capitals
For low-lying island nations in the Pacific, like Tuvalu, the threat is not just looming—it’s here. Capitals like Funafuti are facing chronic flooding from king tides, and saltwater is contaminating their limited freshwater supplies. In Tuvalu, 60% of the population resides on Funafuti, a narrow strip averaging just 2 meters above sea level. NASA and UN projections indicate that by 2050, daily tidal flooding could inundate half the capital, and by 2100, up to 90% of Funafuti may be submerged in worst-case scenarios.
Over the past thirty years, local sea level has risen by 15 cm, 1.5 times faster than the global average, greatly accelerating coastal erosion and loss of habitable land. Tuvalu completed a seven-hectare land reclamation platform intended to withstand rising seas and storm waves beyond 2100. Despite such efforts, it remains fundamentally exposed: cyclone events like Cyclone Pam in 2015 displaced 45% of the population
For these nations, the conversation is shifting from adaptation to migration. In 2023, Tuvalu and Australia enacted the Falepili Union Treaty, a groundbreaking “mobility with dignity” pathway granting 280 Tuvaluans per year permanent residency in Australia.
IMO, this is one of the biggest injustices of the climate crisis.
What’s the Takeaway?
So, what connects all these places? It’s a combination of rising seas, sinking land, extreme weather, and water scarcity. While some of these cities are investing heavily in engineering solutions to buy themselves time, it’s an incredibly expensive and, ultimately, temporary fix.
The reality is that the long-term survival of these cities—and countless other coastal communities—depends on aggressive global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation can only get us so far. Without addressing the root cause, we’re just building taller walls against a relentlessly rising tide. And that’s a battle we’re destined to lose.
Disclaimer – This list is solely the author’s opinion based on research and publicly available information. It is not intended to be professional advice.
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